Recent forecastHit
Citi→LifeMiles
Forecasted Mar 21 · Bonus arrived Mar 22
30-day probability
0.95
Forecast rank
1/35
Why we called it: 13 prior bonuses · median interval 158 days · 706 days since last — well past due.
Live forecast updated daily
Don't waste your credit card points by transferring too early.
We track every transfer bonus across Chase, Amex, Capital One, and Citi — then forecast which ones are most likely coming next. Every prediction shows its work.
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How well it works
We'd rather show our work than claim 92% accuracy.
Here's how our forecasts performed against the seven transfer bonuses that happened since we went live. Not perfect — and we'll keep improving as we collect more events.
4 / 7
Forecast hits
Last 7 real transfer bonuses
0.95
Top probability
Citi → LifeMiles, 1 day before it dropped
231
Bonus records tracked
Across 4 issuers and 28 partners
Backtested by replaying our model against the actual bonus history.See the live forecast
How it works
Every forecast shows its work.
- 01
We track every transfer bonus
Every bonus from Chase, Amex, Capital One, and Citi to every airline partner — going back to 2013. 231 records and counting, cross-checked across five public sources.
- 02
We compute the signal
For each issuer-partner pair, we look at recurrence interval, days since the last bonus, seasonality patterns, and magnitude trend. Then we Bayesian-dampen by data density.
- 03
You see the reasoning
Every forecast on the dashboard expands to show the exact inputs that produced it. No black box, no marketing math.
Sample forecast reasoning
Amex→Hawaiian
Today's top forecast
0.8730-day probability
Prior bonuses9
Median interval365 days
Days since last1,205
ConfidenceHigh
In English: Amex has run this bonus roughly once a year for nine years. The last one was three years ago — meaningfully overdue.
Pricing
Free now. Paid tiers coming.
Tell us which tier fits and we'll notify you when it launches. Pricing isn't live yet — your choice here helps us build the right thing.
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Questions
The honest answers.
How accurate is this, really?
Across the last seven transfer bonuses that actually happened, our model flagged four of them as high-probability the day before they dropped. Three were in the top five of our 35-pair forecast leaderboard. We've also missed bonuses — when a pair's cadence accelerates suddenly, or when there's not enough history to spot the pattern. We publish hits and misses both.
Where does the data come from?
Every historical bonus is cross-checked against The Points Guy, Frequent Miler, Miles to Memories, Travel on Points, and 10xTravel. If a bonus can't be verified from at least one credible source, it doesn't go in. Bonus data is refreshed weekly; predictions recompute daily at 6am UTC.
Why should I trust this over a blog?
Two reasons. First, every forecast on the dashboard shows the inputs that produced it — you can verify the math yourself. Second, we update the leaderboard daily, so you're not relying on a blog post from three months ago. Blogs are great for context; we're built for timing.
Are you affiliated with Chase, Amex, Capital One, or Citi?
No. Independent, no card affiliations, no card recommendations. We track when bonuses happen — we don't sell credit cards.
What about hotel transfer bonuses?
Not yet. V1 covers airline transfer partners across Chase, Amex, Capital One, and Citi. Hotels are coming — and if you sign up for Pro Alerts above, they're included when launched.
Will you sell my email or send junk?
No to both. We use your email to send transfer bonus alerts if you ask for them. That's it. You can unsubscribe at any time from any email.
See the live forecast.
No signup required.
Browse the dashboard, check the reasoning behind every prediction, and decide for yourself whether the model holds up.
Open the dashboardAmex → Hawaiian
0.8730-day
Amex → Aeroplan
0.6630-day
Capital One → Flying Blue
0.5530-day
Chase → Virgin Atlantic
0.4230-day